St. Mary's
West Coast
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.2#43
Expected Predictive Rating+12.6#28
Pace60.6#339
Improvement-2.3#272

Offense
Total Offense+7.5#22
First Shot+6.9#17
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#124
Layup/Dunks+5.7#14
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#272
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#78
Freethrows+0.5#143
Improvement-2.3#284

Defense
Total Defense+2.7#92
First Shot+2.0#105
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#120
Layups/Dunks-0.9#207
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#282
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#45
Freethrows+1.3#93
Improvement+0.0#174
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 5.1% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 96.1% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 96.1% n/a n/a
Average Seed 8.5 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.7% n/a n/a
First Round95.6% n/a n/a
Second Round43.6% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen11.8% n/a n/a
Elite Eight4.5% n/a n/a
Final Four1.4% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.3% n/a n/a
National Champion0.1% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b0 - 03 - 5
Quad 25 - 18 - 6
Quad 38 - 216 - 8
Quad 49 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 21   Wisconsin W 65-63 OT 37%     1 - 0 +15.6 +0.9 +14.8
  Nov 11, 2019 140   Winthrop L 59-61 86%     1 - 1 -3.3 -14.6 +11.2
  Nov 14, 2019 306   Long Beach St. W 81-63 97%     2 - 1 +6.9 +9.9 -1.8
  Nov 17, 2019 317   Cal Poly W 79-48 97%     3 - 1 +18.7 +5.1 +15.6
  Nov 20, 2019 152   Fresno St. W 68-58 81%     4 - 1 +11.0 +11.3 +2.2
  Nov 23, 2019 295   Lehigh W 77-66 96%     5 - 1 +0.3 +4.3 -3.2
  Nov 29, 2019 42   Utah St. W 81-73 61%     6 - 1 +15.3 +11.2 +4.0
  Dec 01, 2019 232   Nebraska Omaha W 75-66 94%     7 - 1 +2.1 +7.1 -3.8
  Dec 05, 2019 175   Northern Illinois W 61-49 89%     8 - 1 +8.6 -0.2 +11.2
  Dec 08, 2019 6   Dayton L 68-78 28%     8 - 2 +6.3 +6.5 -1.1
  Dec 14, 2019 144   @ California W 89-77 71%     9 - 2 +16.5 +23.6 -6.6
  Dec 18, 2019 60   Arizona St. W 96-56 57%     10 - 2 +48.3 +26.6 +20.9
  Dec 21, 2019 80   Nevada W 68-63 64%     11 - 2 +11.6 +1.5 +10.4
  Dec 28, 2019 211   Seattle W 84-58 92%     12 - 2 +20.4 +12.2 +9.6
  Jan 02, 2020 78   @ San Francisco W 69-58 52%     13 - 2 1 - 0 +20.7 +1.4 +19.4
  Jan 04, 2020 125   @ Pacific L 99-107 4OT 67%     13 - 3 1 - 1 -2.2 +0.7 -0.5
  Jan 09, 2020 22   BYU W 87-84 OT 49%     14 - 3 2 - 1 +13.6 +9.4 +3.9
  Jan 11, 2020 162   Santa Clara L 66-67 88%     14 - 4 2 - 2 -3.6 -5.6 +1.9
  Jan 18, 2020 135   @ Pepperdine W 78-69 69%     15 - 4 3 - 2 +14.2 +13.3 +1.8
  Jan 23, 2020 78   San Francisco W 58-48 74%     16 - 4 4 - 2 +13.7 -1.5 +17.2
  Jan 25, 2020 197   @ Loyola Marymount W 73-62 81%     17 - 4 5 - 2 +12.1 +12.5 +1.4
  Jan 30, 2020 297   Portland W 86-64 96%     18 - 4 6 - 2 +11.2 +11.8 -0.2
  Feb 01, 2020 22   @ BYU L 79-81 27%     18 - 5 6 - 3 +14.6 +19.8 -5.4
  Feb 06, 2020 228   @ San Diego W 66-60 85%     19 - 5 7 - 3 +5.2 -2.1 +7.4
  Feb 08, 2020 2   Gonzaga L 60-90 28%     19 - 6 7 - 4 -13.8 -6.7 -7.8
  Feb 15, 2020 125   Pacific W 71-63 84%     20 - 6 8 - 4 +7.8 +10.7 -1.6
  Feb 20, 2020 197   Loyola Marymount W 57-51 91%     21 - 6 9 - 4 +1.1 -6.0 +8.3
  Feb 22, 2020 228   San Diego W 92-63 94%     22 - 6 10 - 4 +22.1 +25.1 -1.2
  Feb 27, 2020 162   @ Santa Clara W 78-72 74%     23 - 6 11 - 4 +9.5 +7.8 +1.7
  Feb 29, 2020 2   @ Gonzaga L 76-86 13%     23 - 7 11 - 5 +12.3 +10.6 +1.7
  Mar 07, 2020 135   Pepperdine W 89-82 2OT 78%     24 - 7 +9.2 +2.6 +5.6
  Mar 09, 2020 22   BYU W 51-50 37%     25 - 7 +14.6 -11.7 +26.4
  Mar 10, 2020 2   Gonzaga L 66-84 20%     25 - 8 +1.3 +7.2 -8.1
Projected Record 25 - 8 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 100.0 100.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.0%
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 100.0% 96.1% 96.1% 8.5 0.3 4.9 12.9 28.5 33.4 14.4 1.8 3.9 96.1%
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 96.1% 0.0% 96.1% 8.5 0.3 4.9 12.9 28.5 33.4 14.4 1.8 3.9 96.1%